Why Won't the Scale Move After 40? Plateau or Just Noise

Nikkiey: The data can be noisier. Think of the scale number as the sum of several layers, and only one of them is fat. So some of you guys are like, well, I'm up two pounds. Okay, that is completely normal. Or if you're down one pound the next day, then you're up three pounds the day after that, that's completely normal. So if you're weighing in every Saturday, once a week, it's nearly meaningless. Those types of comparisons can be entirely misleading. You are missing six other days of the week that have other variability that comes into play as to what could be affecting that one scale weigh-in a week.

Hey, hey, hey, what's going on, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of The WarriorBabe Show with your host, Nikkiey Stott. So today I'm going to do a pro series episode. Maybe I will expand on this series, but this is going to be more for the advanced individual. But if you're newer to this and you're a beginner on your fitness journey, first of all, welcome. In some way or fashion, this will serve you and you will get plenty from it.

But I'm going to go deeper than I usually do, because I've gotten some requests from individuals who feel as if the podcast has been focused on just starting off and getting into fitness, or being six months into the journey. Some of the listeners are craving more advanced dialogue, advanced conversations, diving into things they would experience maybe in year two or year three. So that's what today's topic is.

I'm going to sharpen people's concepts on fitness and their journey. So today's topic is when the data lies. And what I mean by that is, maybe you're a coach, or this could go vice versa. Maybe a client, or you in general, a babe listening to this, has been consistent for three or four weeks and the scale just hasn't moved. And the instincts kick in: it's a plateau. So then it's like, oh, well, maybe I have to cut calories.

We have to add cardio. I have to change something. Look, the instinct is the problem right there. A plateau is a conclusion, not an observation. What you've actually observed is a number that didn't change. That's the instinct right there: the plateau. A number hasn't changed. And there are many, many reasons that a number doesn't change, most of which have nothing to do with the plan you're on failing.

Which is where a lot of people's brains go. It's like, I'm in a plateau, and then they jump to the end point: well, the plan isn't working. So therefore I need to jump to another plan, or I need to do X, Y, Z. I need to cut calories. I need to add. I need to change something. Okay, well, the plateau is actually the conclusion. There's a ton of stuff happening in between. So today I want to walk you guys through how I personally think about reading a plateau, reading a stall, what's actually noise and what's actually the signal, how to tell the difference between the two, and how to decide what to do without overreacting, going haywire and changing everything at once.

Okay, so let's get into this. First, I want to frame how I would specifically teach this if I was working with a client, if I was working with coaches and teaching them how to communicate this with a client, and how I hope to also teach you guys, if you're in year two or year three, how you can recognize this for yourself as well. So I usually frame it this way. When a result stalls, there are typically two questions that I would ask, but most people jump to the second question without answering the first question.

So the first question is: is it actually a stall? What I mean by that is, is the underlying trend really flat, or is the data, the numbers, just very, very noisy? Is it actually a stall? Is that actually what's happening? Question number two, which a lot of people just jump to, is: if it's real, why? The stall is real, why? And what's the smallest change that can address it?

If you skip question one, you're going to fix problems that probably don't even exist. What I mean by that is when people are like, well, what can I change? What needs to be adjusted? If you skip question one, you'll cut calories on yourself or on someone who is recomping their body. Or you'll add cardio for someone whose water retention is just spiking. Or you'll teach someone that every stall, every plateau, every wobble you experience requires some dramatic response, which just wrecks your consistency over time.

And typically the majority of people jump. I've seen coaches jump to this. It's like, okay, well, then we need to fix something, because they get roped up in the emotions of what the client is feeling. Or maybe the client isn't working with a coach and is just thinking about it themselves: I just need to do X, Y and Z. I've seen 90% of women jump to the second question, and they change calories, they add cardio, they do things that just spiral, when they're actually fixing multiple problems that don't exist. So everything in this episode is a way to answer question one before you touch anything that involves question two, okay?

So let's start with why the data is noisy. Think of the scale number as the sum of several layers, and only one of them is fat. If I was to break it down into layers, I would go: layer one is water and glycogen. For every gram of glycogen in your muscle stores, you carry roughly three to four grams of water along with it.

That means a shift, like you eating more carbohydrates, having a harder training week, having a refeed or overeating at a meal, can move the scale a couple of pounds with no change in body fat at all. Similar with sodium intake or sugar intake, and the same goes for starting creatine. This is just layer one. This is what I mean by the data being noisy sometimes. If you're just thinking of a scale number, there are so many layers to that number, this being layer one.

And only one of them is actually fat. The second layer I would say is training-induced inflammation. If you start a new program, have a volume increase, or return after a break, that causes muscle damage and fluid retention that literally can persist for weeks after. So someone who just ramped up training will often see the scale flat, or it'll go up, while the real change is happening underneath.

So it's not necessarily you increasing in pounds of fat. You're increasing in inflammation. You're increasing in water because your training has changed, and that could persist for weeks, but it's not fat. You get what I'm saying? You tracking with me? Okay, that's layer two. Layer three, I would argue, is the menstrual cycle, or hormonal variability in women going through perimenopause and menopause. For women, the luteal phase brings on, I mean, y'all know, ladies, you get uncomfortable in your abdomen.

You feel like you gained five pounds, not of fat, but from water retention. And for those of you in perimenopause listening to this, with irregular or unpredictable cycles, where you're like, yeah, I'm going five months without getting my normal period, it's harder because you can't reliably compare same phase to same phase. So in that case, what I would say is extend the evaluation window, because shorter windows will mislead you. So that's layer three: you're experiencing hormonal variability, which is a layer to that number on the scale.

For some of you guys, layer four could be sleep and stress. Poor sleep and a highly stressful life are associated with fluid retention, and associated with hunger changes. So a rough couple of weeks can show up on the scale without any change in your actual fat mass. And the last one is the gut, your bodily contents, your stomach contents. So bowel movements, hydration, how late you ate, the time you stepped on the scale. A pound or two of day-to-day variability is completely normal.

So some of you guys are like, well, I'm up two pounds. Okay, that is completely normal. Or if you're down one pound the next day, then you're up three pounds the day after that, that's completely normal. And if you add up those layers, you can see why a single weigh-in is nearly meaningless. If you're weighing in every Saturday, once a week, it's nearly meaningless, and those types of comparisons can be entirely misleading.

You are missing six other days of the week that have other variability that comes into play as to what could be affecting that one scale weigh-in a week. Does that make sense? If you're still somebody that is weighing and you're two years in... I mean, for me, I don't even weigh myself anymore, guys. I don't think I even own a scale. I might have thrown it out in my most recent move, and before that it was collecting dust in the closet. Now, maybe it's worth me bringing back an episode on scale mindset, because you definitely do have a relationship with the scale, and different people have relationships with the scale in different ways.

Some of you guys have a tight relationship with it. It affects your mood. Some of you guys recognize it's just data, so you weigh yourself every day because it's a trend, which I'm going to get into in a second. Some of you guys don't weigh yourself at all. It has no emotional hold over you, and you solely base it off of data that you know is honest and truthful. So if you're still weighing yourself once a week, I would beg you to look at that a little bit differently, which I'll get into a bit as well. But just remember why the data could be so noisy for you if you're weighing on one day: there are multiple layers to that single number you're seeing on the scale.

And those are the layers I just discussed. Okay. So getting that clear signal, what does that look like? For some of you guys who are newer on your journey listening to this episode, you're going to have some major takeaways here. And for anybody who's two or three years in, this is the basics. You're going to hear me say this over and over again. The way you get a clear signal is by using multiple measurements and longer windows of time, so you can build trust with your body in the way it's showing you results.

So one way is to use a trend, not a single data point. What I've typically had my clients do, and what our coaches have our clients do, is weigh in daily. It depends on your relationship with the scale, but you're weighing in daily under the same conditions, and then you calculate a rolling average, a seven-day average at minimum. Then you're comparing averages across weeks, not single readings. That can be helpful because you're seeing averages over a trend of time, not just weighing in on Saturday and weighing in again the next Saturday.

You may argue that's over time, but you just have one data point out of a seven-day window. So it's not accurate enough. Now, back to the mindset portion of the relationship with the scale: if you find that stressful, fewer data points can work, but you lose resolution, so interpret it with more caution. If you are only weighing in maybe three times a week, recognize that you're giving yourself fewer data points to work with.

So just bring that to the table for what it is and be honest about it. Hey, while you're listening, if you're getting value from this episode, take a moment to tap that review button or share this podcast with a friend. It's a small gesture that goes a long way in helping more women find their way to feeling stronger and more confident in their skin. I appreciate you so much for taking the time to support this show. Another one is measurements. Guys, I'm never going to get away from this. Hips, waist, thighs, relevant limbs, on a regular schedule, taken the same way each time.

The waist trend is especially valuable because it can fall while the scale is flat. So you can lose inches off your waist but stay the same number on the scale. That's literally what recomposition looks like. I've talked about this many times. There have been before and after pictures inside of WarriorBabe where women have only seen a three-pound difference on the scale, and they look drastically different in photos. They look like they've lost 30 pounds. That's what recomposition is. So you will see measurements change, but maybe you won't see the scale change.

And then performance is so important to look at. Strength trends are one of the best indicators that muscle is being built. If your strength is steadily climbing, that's strong evidence that you're not losing muscle mass, even if the scale isn't changing. Photos, and subjective data: energy, sleep, hunger, mood, recovery. These are all important things to look at. And if there's anything I would say for coaches listening to this, or women who are two years into their journey,

guys, a real plateau requires agreement across signals over a meaningful window of time. As a rule of thumb, I would want roughly three to four weeks in which the weight trend, the measurements and the performance are all flat, with confirmed adherence, before I make a true call that you're in a plateau. Literally all of those things. And this is where it can be overwhelming for somebody who's coaching themselves by themselves.

Even when I see WarriorBabes graduate from the program, they end up coming back, because a lot of responsibility then falls on your plate to pay attention. And some of you guys don't trust yourself yet to measure all of those things and still have the accountability to follow through on what you know you need to do. Some of you will measure the things, see a stall, and change something, even though you spent two or three years doing this with a coach in your corner. It's just human behavior, guys.

It's nothing to beat yourself up over. That's why having a coach matters, why coaches have coaches, because it's just how we respond and react. It's just part of the process. So if only one signal is flat, like the measurements, but weight is still going down and performance is still going up, if only the measurements are flat while the others are moving, I'm not calling that a plateau. Some of you guys are only looking at your weight, and you're like, my weight isn't moving, so it's a plateau. I'm like, that's not a plateau.

I call that incomplete information. So take that for what it is, guys. I'll lean in here and give you a little bit of tough love. The biggest source of stalls that I see: before you assume a physiological explanation, you have to audit the data going in. What I mean by that is, with self-reported food intake, people report that they're consistent. But I need to tell you, people drastically underestimate how much they eat, even though they think they're eating consistently and enough.

And it's often by a meaningful amount that they are underestimating. That includes people who are trying hard and being honest. It's not a dishonesty thing. It's just the nature of estimating portions and forgetting small bites and oils and sauces and condiments, tracking them inaccurately or paying attention to them inaccurately. So before you change the plan, I need you to run an adherence audit on yourself. What I mean by that is, how many days were actually logged?

How many days did you actually track in the last 14 days, weekends included? How were portions measured? Were they weighed or were they eyeballed? Where did untracked calories live? The sauces, the drinks, the oils, restaurant meals. Where did that live? What do the weekends actually look like? Because a few higher days can erase the weekdays of you being good and being in a deficit. This is where I would argue there's so much that gets found in an adherence audit.

Because if the audit finds gaps, you don't have a metabolic mystery. You have a data quality problem. And the fix is tighter tracking, not cutting more calories. Only after you've confirmed the data is clean should you move to the next layer. Ladies, are you feeling frustrated with body changes you're experiencing during menopause? It's time to take control.

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Visit WarriorBabe.com forward slash apply today to start your transformation. That's WarriorBabe.com forward slash apply. All right, let's get back to the show. So I just leaned in there and gave you some tough love to take on. It's so important to have an honest awareness and reflection of yourself, and to ask whether you're being real to your journey, being honest to your journey. I'm not saying it's dishonest. It's just: is your

adherence accurate? Okay. And then if the data is clean, the signals agree and the window is long enough, then you probably do have a real stall: measurements, weight, strength, all of those over the course of four weeks, and not one of them has changed. Now I sort it into specific categories, and this is different for everybody, but each one calls for a different response.

So I would look at the individual's energy balance, because their energy balance could have genuinely shifted. Someone who has lost weight now has a smaller body, even if they're building more muscle mass, and naturally their daily movement may have also dropped without them even noticing. This happened to me when I was in bodybuilding. Even though my body was getting smaller, I wasn't moving as often as I was before.

So NEAT, non-exercise activity thermogenesis: people normally see a drop in that, and it can fall meaningfully during a deficit. So a reduction in energy expenditure is explained by reduced movement, with additional contributions that come into play there. But I would say, look at your overall step trend.

Have your steps quietly dropped? You used to get 10,000 steps, but now you're tired because you're getting less food, and energy output is required of you in other areas of your life. If that has quietly dropped, then getting your steps back to where they were is one of the smallest changes that can actually make a difference. So that's one. Naturally, this is what happens if somebody's in a deep cut. Typically I see this more with bodybuilders and in that world, because I don't really take clients into deep, deep cuts like this.

But that's if you've been in a deficit for a really long time. Another category I would look at is stress and recovery. If you're having poor sleep and high stress, and you're doing too much training volume for your actual recovery capacity, then adding more of a deficit or more cardio is only going to make it worse. So the answer, and a lot of women don't like to hear it,

is usually giving you more recovery. If you're training six days a week, but you have your highest stress and you're not recovering well, adding more isn't the answer. Less is more here. Focusing on better sleep, having a deload week, less training stress, that could make a meaningful difference in breaking a plateau. The other category I would look at is: maybe the program itself has stalled. Your strength has stopped progressing. You're at the same weights, the same reps, for weeks. That's a progressive overload problem.

And the response is pushing harder and challenging yourself a little bit more. This is more for women who have been on a program for six months straight doing the same workouts, and they're like, well, my strength is the same. Well, then the program has stalled you, and we need to challenge your body a little bit more. So the response is training. It's not changing your nutrition, it's not cutting calories, it's not adding more cardio. It's literally probably just picking up five extra pounds in every single one of your exercises

that you do that week, if you can, and you'll see a difference. Another category I would look at is if somebody has been in a deficit way too long, and you have fatigue, you have hunger, you have poor training performance, your mood is drifting. These are all signs that somebody needs a diet break. I've talked about this in episodes before. Or you need a change in your phase, rather than going into a deeper cut. You need a break. And this is

why I stress the importance of personalization, why I stress the importance of one-on-one coaching. Because I could have 20 people in my backyard right now, coaching all of them, and if I split them up into five categories like this, everybody would fall into different categories, maybe two or four in each. So everybody's different. That's what I'm trying to say. So I would give somebody a diet break

if they're fatiguing out, or they're hungry, or their training performance is stalling. They might just need a break. I've done that many times. There's also another category I would look at: recomposition masking progress. The scale is flat, but the waist is down and the strength is up. That's not a stall at all. That's the plan actually working. And that can drive people to think they've stalled, when it's showing you that all the other stuff is clear. This is a signal.

I wouldn't even consider that a category. I'd almost eliminate it, because it's a possibility that's going to happen no matter what. So if you notice, of all the five that I said, none of them calls for you to eat less. It either calls for a break, or for upping your training performance, or for more recovery, or for getting a little more movement in, focusing on your steps. It doesn't call for eating less. Unless we're focusing on a cut,

that is usually my last go-to with anybody. So if you take one operating rule from this episode today, take just one of all the things I said: you change only one variable at a time. You have to give it a defined window, and you have to be honest within that timeframe to accurately audit yourself. Give it four weeks, and look across the different signals to see if all of them are flat.

If one of them is flat but the others are moving, you're not in a stall. Because if you change all the things at once, when someone changes calories, cardio, training and supplements all at once, you've literally destroyed your ability to learn from the actual result. If it works, you don't know why. You don't know what worked. If it doesn't, then you don't know what to undo. So once you've identified the most likely category you're in, make the smallest change to address it. Then define a window of time in advance, usually

two to four weeks, write down what you expect to see, and commit to not touching anything else until that window ends. That's really hard. That's really hard. That's why I always say having somebody in your corner to help you through this is invaluable. Okay? Now, a few practical notes as a takeaway. I would say this if I was working with you, or if you're a coach working with clients: set the rules before the stall even happens.

So at the start, understand this: single weigh-ins are just loud sometimes, and you're going to evaluate trends over weeks. And if you see a weight stall, it is completely normal. If people understood this, if you understood this and were told it weeks in advance, you would panic far less. The other thing I would say is treat this data as feedback, not as an absolute, hard verdict.

The number shows information about the system you are executing on. It isn't a judgment of who you are. All right? So the whole framework, in order. First, ask whether it's actually a stall. Understand those noise layers. Build a signal from trends, from measurements, from performance, from photos, from subjective data. Audit the data going in: audit your adherence to eating and your other data points. And if it's real,

then categorize it. Is it energy balance? Is it recovery? Is it the program? Is it duration? Is it just masked body recomposition? Then change one variable, give it that defined window, and communicate the process so nobody panics. If you're doing it by yourself, let yourself know, so you don't panic. The skill isn't knowing what to cut, you guys. It's knowing what not to touch and when not to touch anything. If you ever listened to Bryn's story from inside of WarriorBabe, she lost 25 pounds.

Once she hit the first 15 pounds lost, she stalled for weeks. And her coach inside of WarriorBabe didn't change anything for her. Nothing. And then a couple weeks later, the next 10 pounds came off. That's because she just kept doing the same things. All right? And that's what I want you guys to understand as well. You don't have to change something if you're experiencing one thing being off on your journey. And if you guys want to go deeper on nutrition and training

and the strategy behind all of this, there's a link below this video where you can get access to a free training. So go register for it. Check it out. Be there. You'll learn so much and walk away with so much. All right, you guys, I'll see you in the next episode. Peace out. Hey, really quick before you go, I have one small favor to ask. If this episode brought you value or sparked something in you, take just a moment to hit that review button. Your rating and review make all the difference in helping more women discover the tools they need to transform their fitness

and their confidence. It takes less than a minute, but it can change the path of someone else's journey. Thank you so much for leaving that review. I appreciate you so much.